An Electric Load Forecasting Scheme with High Time Resolution Based on Artificial Neural Network

KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering, Vol. 6, No.11, pp.527-536, November 2017
10.3745/KTSDE.2017.6.11.527, Full Text

Abstract

With the recent development of smart grid industry, the necessity for efficient EMS(Energy Management System) has been increased. In particular, in order to reduce electric load and energy cost, sophisticated electric load forecasting and efficient smart grid operation strategy are required. In this paper, for more accurate electric load forecasting, we extend the data collected at demand time into high time resolution and construct an artificial neural network-based forecasting model appropriate for the high time resolution data. Furthermore, to improve the accuracy of electric load forecasting, time series data of sequence form are transformed into continuous data of two- dimensional space to solve that problem that machine learning methods cannot reflect the periodicity of time series data. In addition, to consider external factors such as temperature and humidity in accordance with the time resolution, we estimate their value at the time resolution using linear interpolation method. Finally, we apply the PCA(Principal Component Analysis) algorithm to the feature vector composed of external factors to remove data which have little correlation with the power data. Finally, we perform the evaluation of our model through 5-fold cross-validation. The results show that forecasting based on higher time resolution improve the accuracy and the best error rate of 3.71% was achieved at the 3-min resolution.


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Cite this paper

[KIPS Transactions Style]
J. Park, J. Moon, and E. Hwang, "An Electric Load Forecasting Scheme with High Time Resolution Based on Artificial Neural Network," KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering, Vol.6, No.11, pp.527-536, 2017, DOI: 10.3745/KTSDE.2017.6.11.527.

[IEEE Style]
Jinwoong Park, Jihoon Moon, and Eenjun Hwang, "An Electric Load Forecasting Scheme with High Time Resolution Based on Artificial Neural Network," KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering, vol. 6, no. 11, pp. 527-536, 2017. DOI: 10.3745/KTSDE.2017.6.11.527.

[ACM Style]
Park, J., Moon, J., and Hwang, E. 2017. An Electric Load Forecasting Scheme with High Time Resolution Based on Artificial Neural Network. KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering, 6, 11, (2017), 527-536. DOI: 10.3745/KTSDE.2017.6.11.527.